In the current economic context, which is as particular as it is uncertain, good news comes with the greatest caution. No euphoria thus surrounded the publication, Thursday, October 20, of the financial discounters of Unédic, the joint association responsible for the management of unemployment insurance. The moment, however, had something unprecedented in its positive character: this year, the plan is in surplus for the first time since 2008, up to 4.4 billion euros. A figure that is all the more remarkable in that it is more than twice what the organization predicted in June. Above all, this last table on a result of the same order (+ 4.2 billion euros) in 2023 and in 2024.
“We are careful not to speak of a budget surplus, but rather of a positive balance, with our level of debt”, nuanced the vice-president of Unédic, Jean-Eudes Tesson, member of Medef, during a press conference at the headquarters of the organization on Thursday. Nevertheless, the good health of unemployment insurance allows Unédic to accelerate the repayment of this debt, which admittedly still remains significant, to 59.2 billion euros at the end of 2022. Among which are the 18 .4 billion euros of Covid debt, the question of the treatment of which is still not effective with the government. Covid debt aside, Unédic hopes to find a lower level of debt in 2024 (32.8 billion) than its pre-crisis level (36.8 billion).
Unemployment insurance accounts benefit in particular from job creation, which will continue to rise in 2022 (+246,000) despite the slowdown in economic activity (increase in gross domestic product of 2.5% on a , against 6.8% in 2021), according to the note released by the regime’s services. A phenomenon that stimulates social security contributions and, therefore, the regime’s revenue. However, the latter foresees a halt in 2023, both for job creations (-6,000) and for growth (+ 0.3% of GDP) before a rebound in 2024 (+ 92,000 job creations and 1.6% growth).
The double effect of inflation
Inflation also plays an important role in Unédic’s accounts, with two opposite effects. A first positive for revenue, with the increase in wages and therefore the payroll. However, this parameter will have negative consequences in the longer term and “will result in a more sustained increase in the daily allowance presented to jobseekers”, according to Unédic. Indeed, the new recipients who will enter the system will receive higher salaries and, consequently, higher allowances.
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