the world is not preparing enough for the worst, warn scientists

Researchers say too few jobs are guaranteed against the most “catastrophic” risks of global warming.

The erasure of a chain of disasters due to global warming is “dangerously underexploredby the international community, warn scientists in a study published Tuesday, August 2, calling on the world to consider the worst to better prepare for it.

In an article published in the journal PNAS (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences), researchers say too little work has been funded on mechanisms that may lead to risk”catastrophic” and “irreversiblefor humanity: for example, if temperature increases are worse than observed or if they cause cascades of unprovoked events, or both.

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The four horsemen of the apocalypse

It’s the scenarios that matter most that we know the least about.writes Luke Kemp of the Cambridge Center for the Study of Existential Risk. The more research into Earth’s climate tipping points – such as the irreversible melting of the ice caps or the loss of the Amazon rainforest – smacks, the more it becomes necessary to multiply to consider high-risk scenarios in modeling. climate,” says Johan Rockström, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impacts and co-author. “The pathways to disaster are not limited to the direct impacts of high temperatures, such as extreme weather events. Ripple effects such as financial crises, conflicts and new epidemics could lead to further calamities, and hamper recovery from potential disasters such as nuclear waradds Luke Kemp.

The team proposes in response a research program to help governments combat the “four horsemen” of “climate apocalypse“: famine and malnutrition, extreme weather events, conflicts and vector-borne diseases. The authors point out that successive scientific reports by UN climate experts (IPCC) focus mainly on the predicted effects of a warming of 1.5 to 2°C. But current government actions instead put the Earth on a trajectory of 2.7°C warming by the end of the century, far from the 1.5°C targeted by the Paris agreement in 2015.

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The study suggests that a certain scientific tendency to “favor the least worst-case scenarioa lead to not paying enough attention to the potential impacts of a warming of 3°C or more. These researchers have calculated that extreme heat zones – with an average annual temperature above 29°C – could affect two billion people by 2070. These temperatures can lead to a major risk of “attic purlinsdue to droughts like the one currently hitting Western Europe and heat waves like the one that hit the wheat crop in India in March/April.

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