According to IMF companies with 4.7% growth in 2022, Algeria would be ahead of the United States, China, Canada, Italy, Spain, France…
Fabulous. The national economy, which confirms its status as the locomotive of the Maghreb, is part of the group of countries which should achieve between 3 and 6% growth in 2022 and takes first place in the Mediterranean Basin. According to IMF companies with 4.7% growth in 2022, it would be ahead of China (3.2%), Canada (3.3%), Italy (3.2%), Spain (4 ,3%)… France, which is not part of it, achieves only 2.5%.
This growth rate is even more restrained in the Maghreb where it outclasses that of Morocco, which should content itself with 0.8%, that of Libya, which would fall to less than 18%, while Mauritania with 4% and Tunisia (2.2%) must pull out of the game. The vagaries of 2020 seem behind us.
A trying year due to the damage caused by the Covid-19 pandemic (fall in oil revenues, foreign exchange reserves, etc.). Algeria, despite this difficult situation, showed clear signs of resilience which enabled it to come out of it significantly less impacted than many countries in the region, its immediate neighbours, in particular. She has done much better since. Driven by an oil and gas sector all fired up since the start of the Russian-Ukrainian armed conflict which saw the prices of black gold and gas soar. This will allow it to record behind a trade surplus to which it has been running since 2015 and to reap record revenues thanks to the sales of gas and oil.
Hydrocarbon exports will, in fact, allow the national economy to reap some 50 billion dollars at the end of 2022 against 34.5 billion dollars in 2021 and 20 billion dollars in 2020 while the trade balance showed a surplus of 5.68 billion dollars at the end of June 2022. An extraordinary boom which confirms its good health and the glowing statistics of the International Monetary Fund known for not distributing good points with a punch.
However, to attribute these performances solely to the oil and gas sector, which indisputably remains the backbone of the country’s economy, would amount to obscuring the significant link of non-hydrocarbon exports, which should reach 7 billion dollars by the end of the year and who aspire to “break” the symbolic bar of 10 billion dollars in 2023. An indisputable indicator which makes it possible to affirm that the march towards the diversification of the country’s economy is not a mere figment of the mind.
Algeria harbors undeniable potential which should enable it to take up this challenge. The time has come to start these projects which must come to name the oil and gas sector which carries the country’s economy at arm’s length. These include, among others, the construction of the port of El Hamdania in Cherchell, the iron deposits of Ghar Djebilet, the zinc mine of Amizour in Béjaïa, the phosphate mine of Bir El Ater in Tébessa, the opening of the mining track in general. Among them is the Ghar Djebilet deposit, which constitutes the armed arms of the Economic Recovery Plan, the outlines of which were sketched out in August 2020.
It should be recalled that Algeria, which also aims to diversify its energy sources through a renewable energy development program allowing the production of 15,000 MW of electricity by 2035, including 4,000 MW by 2024, a program for the construction of photovoltaic power plants, which needs 1,000 MW. So many challenges to be met which show that the country’s growth can “explode”. This constitutes a proven potential which opens the doors to the very closed circle of the Brics (Brazil, Russia, China, India, South Africa).